You call it climate change because you think it's unprecedented. You're
simply not old enough to remember the "Big Freeze of 1963". :-)
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_1962%E2%80%931963_in_the_United_Kingdom>
It's just La Nina and the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Since these are long period oscillations I guess you can call it
climate... but it's not unprecedented.
Chuck Norcutt
On 2/7/2012 4:29 PM, Chris Barker wrote:
> For once I agree with you on the subject of climate, Chuck :-)
>
> It would be utter madness to treat weather forecasting* as anything
> other than scientific guesswork.
>
> I realised the other day why our aviation forecasts have this (for
> instance), " PROB 40 TEMPO OVC005". This means that there is a 40%
> probability that the cloudbase will temporarily (for a short
> period,<1hr) be at 500ft. I always wondered why it was never higher
> than 40%, but now I realise that it's because success for a
> forecaster is achieved at 50%. So there is no point in forecasting
> higher than 40%.
>
> I didn't read the bit from the Independent about snow, but I imagine
> that the chap is likely to be right, or completely wrong, inasmuch
> climate will change drastically whether for the warmer or the colder.
> We're seeing whacky conditions now: the last few months has been
> marked by weather, in the UK, which I have not seen before. In some
> ways it seemed similar to the weather we used encounter in eastern
> Canada, "big weather" conditions, for want of a better description.
> I put this down to climate change.
>
> Chris
>
> On 7 Feb 2012, at 19:54, Chuck Norcutt wrote:
>
>> Well, I can't agree with that. Weather is chaotic and forecasts
>> will always be subject to error and, sometimes, considerable
>> error. Likewise, some Italians want to punish the earthquake
>> forecasters who failed to forecast a major quake with considerable
>> loss of life. That's an even bigger mystery than weather.
>>
>> Chuck Norcutt
>
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